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Brexit - Different points of view

Invesco gives detailed pros against cons for staying in the EU, analysing the strong points from each side while J.P.Morgan exposes four different outcomes and what the economic impact might be for all of them. Pictet analyse the situation from a global point of view and exposes which world markets could be affected most.

Invesco Asset Management-Brexit: The Pros and Cons

With Prime Minister David Cameron's government committed to an "in-out" referendum on the UK's membership in the European Union (EU) before the end of 2017, the consequences of a vote to leave the EU (British Exit, or Brexit) need to be considered. This Insights looks at arguments for and against Brexit, as well as alternative arrangements for trade with the EU. Since winning, he has stepped up efforts to secure a deal on treaty change and/or concessions to support his preference for staying in the EU.


J.P. Morgan Asset Management-Brexit: What investors should consider

Uncertainty over the EU referendum has already affected the UK economy via a sharp decline in the exchange rate since the start of 2016 and-probably-some delay in planned investment in the UK by domestic and foreign businesses. Investors can expect these forces to intensify in the weeks leading up to the vote on 23 June. The more important question is what happens after that. In the week the referendum date was announced, betting markets were suggesting that a majority would vote for Britain to remain in the EU on 23 June. This was also the message from telephone polls, which are seen as being more reliable than the internet polls. But pollsters have had a poor record of predicting the outcome of recent UK referendums and general elections.


Pictet Wealth Management-Brexit: How much would Brexit cost the world economy?

On 23 June, the British will decide whether to stay in the European Union or not. Using econometric models, we can attempt to measure the impact a vote to leave the EU would have on global and European growth, as well as on equities and bonds. The relatively small size of the UK economy (2.4% of world GDP) means the global impact of Brexit would be almost negligible in strictly economic terms, according to global-VAR models of the kind used by central banks to assess the effect of specific events on the global economy. Unsurprisingly, the most exposed countries would be the UK’s European neighbours, whereas countries outside Europe are all largely uncorrelated from events in the UK.




June 2016

Please note that these are the views of John Greenwood, Chief Economist for Invesco, Stephanie Flanders, Chief Market Strategist of UK and Europe for J.P.Morgan and Jean-Pierre Durante Head of Applied research, Asset Allocation and Macro Research for Pictet Wealth Management and should not be interpreted as the views of RL360°.

Authors

John Greenwood

Chief Economist for Invesco


Stephanie Flanders

Chief Market Strategist of UK and Europe for J.P. Morgan

Jean-Pierrre Durante

Head of Applied research, Asset Allocation and Macro Research for Pictet Wealth Management

Please note that these are the views of John Greenwood for Invesco, Stephanie Flanders for J.P.Morgan & Jean-Pierre Durante for Pictet and should not be interpreted as the views of RL360°.

360° fund links

Funds from Invesco, J.P.Morgan and Pictet are available on our guided-architecture products LifePlan, Oracle, Paragon and Quantum. They can also be accessed through our PIMS portfolio bond.