RL360 - T. Rowe Price - 2024 Global Market Outlook

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T. Rowe Price - 2024 Global Market Outlook







Key takeaways from our 2024 Global Market Outlook


The economic distortions stemming from the pandemic have produced tectonic shifts in the global investment landscape. Investors have had to navigate conflicting macroeconomic signals and a market narrative that has gyrated almost every few weeks.  


Many economies have been resilient in 2023, despite aggressive rate hikes and tightening liquidity. This has fueled hopes of a soft landing. However, as we head into 2024, uncertainties remain. Global growth is at risk, as the long and variable lags of monetary policy start to bite.  And while inflation is rolling over, there’s a risk it will inflect higher. We remain neutral on stocks and bonds overall.  


Bond yields have been on a roller coaster ride in 2023. While central banks are likely at the end of their hiking cycles, the baton of volatility will be handed from the short end to the long end of the yield curve - given supply dynamics and an uncertain economic outlook.  


We think rate cuts will materialize later than markets expect, but the Fed will remain data dependent. A steepening of global yield curves is likely to be a more significant driver for markets than the outlook for short-term rates.  


Attractive yields provide the opportunity to lock in income in high-quality bonds. Shorter-term investment-grade bonds, high yield bonds, and emerging market debt also offer opportunities.


The massive outperformance of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks has been a defining feature of equity markets in 2023.  2024 may invite broader equity opportunities and warrants a diversified approach. Delivery on earnings expectations will be key.  


Alongside generative AI, health care innovation and falling energy productivity are structural areas of opportunity. We also see select opportunities in Japan, emerging markets, and small-caps.  


Tectonic market shifts will create new opportunities to put cash to work in 2024.  It will also demand a greater focus on fundamentals, diversification, and risk management. A fertile ground for active investors. 



Important Information


This material is being furnished for general informational and/or marketing purposes only. The material does not constitute or undertake to give advice of any nature, including fiduciary investment advice, nor is it intended to serve as the primary basis for an investment decision. Prospective investors are recommended to seek independent legal, financial and tax advice before making any investment decision. T. Rowe Price group of companies including T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and any income from it can go down as well as up. Investors may get back less than the amount invested.

The material does not constitute a distribution, an offer, an invitation, a personal or general recommendation or solicitation to sell or buy any securities in any jurisdiction or to conduct any particular investment activity. The material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable and current; however, we cannot guarantee the sources' accuracy or completeness. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. The views contained herein are as of the date noted on the material and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price group companies and/or associates. Under no circumstances should the material, in whole or in part, be copied or redistributed without consent from T. Rowe Price.


© 2024 T. Rowe Price. All Rights Reserved. T. ROWE PRICE, INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE, and the Bighorn Sheep design are, collectively and/or apart, trademarks of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. Used with permission.



December 2023

Please note that these are the views of Guy Monson of Sarasin and Partners and should not be interpreted as the views of RL360.


Ritu Vohora

Investment Specialist

T. Rowe Price

December 2023

Please note that these are the views of T. Rowe Price and should not be interpreted as the views of RL360.

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